The Top Setups has no black box: it's a deterministic algorithm that applies, every day, the same methodology described in previous guides to the main assets across more than 20 markets — the full indices of each country (S&P 500, Ibovespa, DAX…), currencies, commodities, cryptocurrencies, and Brazilian government bonds. This page documents each step.
Step 1 — The trend filter
Only assets with a close above the daily MA200 and a favorable moving average stack (moving averages guide) enter the buy list. The weekly chart must agree: trend is decided on the higher timeframe, executed on the lower.
Step 2 — The pullback trigger
Within the trend, the scanner looks for a pullback to the MA21 with a sign of resumption: a strong candle, a reset oscillator turning up again (oscillators guide). Chasing extended prices doesn't pass the filter — the distance to the stop would make the risk-reward unacceptable.
Step 3 — The convergence matrix
Each candidate receives a convergence score: how many indicator families (trend, momentum, volume, volatility) point in the same direction across the three timeframes. This count appears on the card as "X/Y" — an honest summary of how much the technical picture agrees with itself.
Trend exit (weekly EMA50) — the main exit, validated in backtest (profit factor ~1.6 vs. ~1.1 for fixed target);
Conservative target — reference for partial profit-taking, always ≥ 3× the risk.
For Treasury bonds, each level also shows the equivalent rate — because in fixed income, price and rate are the same information (Tesouro Direto guide).
Step 5 — The macro context
Each card carries the quadrant of the Investment Clock — global (USA) and local (asset's country) — and warns when the setup goes against the cycle. Macro factors influence the ranking, but don't censor the setup: the decision is yours, informed.
What backtests shaped
Trend exit > fixed target. Over 15 years of data, letting winners run until the weekly close below EMA50 almost doubled the simulated portfolio's profit factor.
Stock shorts lose. Short selling stocks yielded a profit factor between 0.2 and 0.6 in all tested markets. The app downgrades these setups and explains why on the card itself, instead of hiding them.
Strict macro filter fails. Blocking buys based on cycle phase cut out too many good trades; macro became a weighting factor, not a switch.
Dividends confirm trend. Stocks with high dividend yield and in an uptrend had the best return/risk ratio in the study; expensive P/E with falling earnings (the "potential value trap") received a warning label.
Transparency about limits: the scanner is a heuristic based on classic signals. It makes mistakes — every trend strategy makes frequent mistakes and compensates with the size of its wins. Backtesting is historical simulation with idealized costs; the future does not sign a contract with the past. No Top Setups card is an investment recommendation.
To close the learning cycle
Reread the guides in order: moving averages → oscillators → risk management → Investment Clock → Tesouro Direto. Then open a Top Setups card and try to reconstruct by yourself why each number is there. When you succeed, the tool will have fulfilled its role: you no longer need to trust — you start to verify.